Activiteitrapport
Hieronder vindt u een dagelijks rapport uitgebracht door de NOAA inzake de zonneactiviteit en poollichtactiviteit gedurende de afgelopen dag en de voorspelllingen voor de komende dag. Het rapport wordt elke dag geupdate omstreeks middernacht.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 May 17 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 138 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 17 May 2012
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 16-2100Z tot 17-2100Z
Solar activity was at high levels due to an M5/1f flare
at 17/0147Z that occurred from Region 1476 (N12W89) as it was
approaching the west limb. Associated with the flare was Type II
(645 km/s) and IV radio sweeps as well as a partial halo CME with an
estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 1200 km/s. The
majority of the ejecta was directed off the west limb as seen in
SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery beginning at 17/0206Z, however a shock
enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field is expected from
the event. Further analysis is pending.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity
for all three days of the period (18 - 20 May).
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 16-2100Z tot 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated
active period was observed during the 16/2100Z - 2400Z period due to
a prolonged southward period of the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field. A >10 MeV and >100 MeV proton event
at geosynchronous orbit was observed associated with the M5 flare.
The >10 MeV event began at 17/0210Z, crossed the 100 pfu threshold
(S2) at 17/0245Z, reached a max of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, and fell
below 100 pfu at 17/0945Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event
began at 17/0200Z and reached a max of 20.4 pfu. Both events were
still in progress at the time of this report.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet during the first half of day 1 (18 May).
Around mid to late on day 1, a shock arrival is expected from the
partial halo CME associated with the 17 May M5 flare. Active to
minor storm conditions are expected. Early on day 2 (19 May),
unsettled to active conditions are expected, returning to quiet to
unsettled levels by the end of the day. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day 3 (20 May).
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 18 May tot 20 May
Klasse M 20/10/10 Klasse X 05/01/01 Proton 70/20/05 PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 17 May 136 Voorspelt 18 May-20 May 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 17 May 115
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 16 May 008/009 Verwacht Afr/Ap 17 May 006/006 Voorspelt Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 011/015-010/008-007/005
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 18 May tot 20 May
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief 35/30/10
Kleine stormcondities 25/15/05
Zware-ernstige stormcondities 10/05/01
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief 35/35/15
Kleine stormcondities 40/25/10
Zware-ernstige stormcondities 15/10/05