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Activiteitrapport

Hieronder vindt u een dagelijks rapport uitgebracht door de NOAA inzake de zonneactiviteit en poollichtactiviteit gedurende de afgelopen dag en de voorspelllingen voor de komende dag. Het rapport wordt elke dag geupdate omstreeks middernacht.

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 May 17 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 138 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 17 May 2012

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 16-2100Z tot 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels due to an M5/1f flare at 17/0147Z that occurred from Region 1476 (N12W89) as it was approaching the west limb. Associated with the flare was Type II (645 km/s) and IV radio sweeps as well as a partial halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 1200 km/s. The majority of the ejecta was directed off the west limb as seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery beginning at 17/0206Z, however a shock enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field is expected from the event. Further analysis is pending.

IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit

Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for all three days of the period (18 - 20 May).

IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 16-2100Z tot 17-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated active period was observed during the 16/2100Z - 2400Z period due to a prolonged southward period of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A >10 MeV and >100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit was observed associated with the M5 flare. The >10 MeV event began at 17/0210Z, crossed the 100 pfu threshold (S2) at 17/0245Z, reached a max of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, and fell below 100 pfu at 17/0945Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 17/0200Z and reached a max of 20.4 pfu. Both events were still in progress at the time of this report.

IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet during the first half of day 1 (18 May). Around mid to late on day 1, a shock arrival is expected from the partial halo CME associated with the 17 May M5 flare. Active to minor storm conditions are expected. Early on day 2 (19 May), unsettled to active conditions are expected, returning to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (20 May).

III. Kans zonnevlammen van 18 May tot 20 May

  Klasse M    20/10/10
  Klasse X    05/01/01
  Proton      70/20/05
  PCAF        yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Geobserveerd       17 May 136
  Voorspelt   18 May-20 May  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        17 May 115

V. Geomagnetische A index

  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 16 May  008/009
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 17 May  006/006
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  011/015-010/008-007/005

VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 18 May tot 20 May

  A.  Gemiddelde breedtegraad
        Actief                         35/30/10
        Kleine stormcondities          25/15/05
        Zware-ernstige stormcondities  10/05/01
  B.  Hoge breedtegraad
        Actief                         35/35/15
        Kleine stormcondities          40/25/10
        Zware-ernstige stormcondities  15/10/05