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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 081 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 22 MAR 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8185 (S24E64) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS. A TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THE FLARE AND ANOTHER TYPE II OCCURRED FOLLOWING THE MODERATELY IMPULSIVE X-RAY FLARE. A SMALL WEAK CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS FLARE BUT WAS OBSERVED TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. THIS REGION HAS SHOWN ITSELF TO BE A MODERATE SIZE F-CLASS REGION WITH INDICATIONS OF MIXED POLARITIES. THIS REGION MAY ALSO BE TWO ABUTTED REGIONS SHARING A GENERALLY EAST-WEST NEUTRAL LINE. HOWEVER, CONFLICTING MAGNETIC INFORMATION MADE CONFIRMATION OF ABUTTED REGIONS IMPOSSIBLE. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED. A SMALL FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N27W36 FADED BETWEEN 22/1230-1901Z. SMALL REGION 8186 (N09W23) WAS VISIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND FADED MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8185 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8179 (S24W87) IS MAKING ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT AND COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS FLARE FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ACTIVE INTERVAL WAS FROM 22/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND DATA DURING THE PERIOD SHOWED A MODERATELY HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD AND RISING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 23 MAR tot 25 MAR
Klasse M40%35%35%
Klasse X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       22 MAR 128
  Voorspelt   23 MAR-25 MAR  120/115/103
  90 Day Mean        22 MAR 098
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR  020/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR  010/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR  005/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 23 MAR tot 25 MAR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%25%25%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%30%35%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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