Het archief bekijken van maandag 09 november 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 313 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 09 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N21W74) PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 08/2256Z. THIS REGION RETAINED ITS MIXED POLARITIES AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE IN WHITE LIGHT WAS UNCHANGED. NEW REGION 8384 (S27E78) APPEARED AS A MODERATE SIZE H CLASS SPOT. A SUSPECTED SPRAY OCCURRED FROM THIS REGION BETWEEN 09/0134-0216Z. THIS EVENT MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A C3 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT AT 09/0153Z. A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N24E25 FADED BETWEEN 08/2318-2330Z. SEVERAL CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOHO CORONAGRAPH DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WERE FROM MODERATELY HIGH LATITUDES ON THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LIMBS. THE MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AND ASSOCIATED CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM NW40-70 BEGINNING AT 09/1915Z.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR 10-11 NOV. REGION 8375 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS AND ISOLATED LARGER EVENTS. REGION 8384 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/0600-1200Z. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED SEVERE STORMING DURING THAT TIME. SOLAR WIND DATA WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG SOUTHWARD BZ BEGINNING AROUND 09/0330Z, DECREASING VELOCITY, AND DECREASING TOTAL FIELD MAGNITUDE. A FORBUSH DECREASE OF APPROXIMATELY 6 PERCENT WAS OBSERVED NEAR 09/0100Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 10 NOV. PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE ON THAT DAY. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 11 NOV AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON 12 NOV.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 10 NOV tot 12 NOV
Klasse M65%60%15%
Klasse X30%25%10%
Proton30%25%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       09 NOV 162
  Voorspelt   10 NOV-12 NOV  162/156/145
  90 Day Mean        09 NOV 133
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 NOV  036/068
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  035/072
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  020/025-012/012-010/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 10 NOV tot 12 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%20%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%10%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief15%10%10%
Kleine stormcondities10%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%05%05%

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