Het archief bekijken van woensdag 11 november 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Nov 11 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 315 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 11 NOV 1998IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. TWO
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARES OCCURRED AT 11/0407Z AND 11/1016Z.
THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THESE TWO EVENTS ARE DEPARTED REGION 8375
(N21W96). SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WERE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO REGION 8375. REGION 8384 (S27E54) HAS SHOWN ITSELF
WITH A LARGE PENUMBRAL AREA AND SEVERAL UMBRAE. IT IS LIKELY ONE OF
THESE UMBRAE IS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD COULD NOT
BE VERIFIED. A MODERATELY LARGE, HIGH LATITUDE, FILAMENT LOCATED
NEAR N43W48 FADED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 11/1100-1400Z. NEW REGION
8385 (N19W29) EMERGED BETWEEN TWO EXISTING REGIONS. THE GROWTH RATE
OF THIS REGION WAS LOW TO MODERATE.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARD LOW LEVELS AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FARTHER BEHIND THE WEST
LIMB. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR 12-13 NOV FROM
THAT AREA. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLY M-CLASS
EVENTS. AT THIS TIME, NEW REGION 8385 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT FLARE PRODUCER. HOWEVER, CONTINUED GROWTH COULD BEGIN A
PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH OTHER NEARBY REGIONS AND AN INCREASE IN
FLARE PRODUCTIVITY.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND
11/1630Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 13-14 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT INTERVAL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 12 NOV tot 14 NOV
| Klasse M | 60% | 35% | 20% |
| Klasse X | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 11 NOV 147 Voorspeld 12 NOV-14 NOV 142/140/140 90 Day Mean 11 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV 003/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV 008/010-015/020-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 12 NOV tot 14 NOV
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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donderdag 21 april 2022
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| Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting | 10/05/2022 | X1.5 |
| Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting | 25/05/2022 | M1.3 |
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|---|---|
| Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag | 11/12/2021 |