Het archief bekijken van woensdag 11 november 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 315 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 11 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARES OCCURRED AT 11/0407Z AND 11/1016Z. THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THESE TWO EVENTS ARE DEPARTED REGION 8375 (N21W96). SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WERE ATTRIBUTABLE TO REGION 8375. REGION 8384 (S27E54) HAS SHOWN ITSELF WITH A LARGE PENUMBRAL AREA AND SEVERAL UMBRAE. IT IS LIKELY ONE OF THESE UMBRAE IS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD COULD NOT BE VERIFIED. A MODERATELY LARGE, HIGH LATITUDE, FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N43W48 FADED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 11/1100-1400Z. NEW REGION 8385 (N19W29) EMERGED BETWEEN TWO EXISTING REGIONS. THE GROWTH RATE OF THIS REGION WAS LOW TO MODERATE.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD LOW LEVELS AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FARTHER BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR 12-13 NOV FROM THAT AREA. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLY M-CLASS EVENTS. AT THIS TIME, NEW REGION 8385 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT FLARE PRODUCER. HOWEVER, CONTINUED GROWTH COULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH OTHER NEARBY REGIONS AND AN INCREASE IN FLARE PRODUCTIVITY.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND 11/1630Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 13-14 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT INTERVAL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 12 NOV tot 14 NOV
Klasse M60%35%20%
Klasse X20%10%05%
Proton20%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       11 NOV 147
  Voorspeld   12 NOV-14 NOV  142/140/140
  90 Day Mean        11 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  003/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  008/010-015/020-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 12 NOV tot 14 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief10%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities05%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief10%35%35%
Kleine stormcondities05%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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