Archief bekijken van zondag 22 november 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 326 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 22 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384 (S26W88) PRODUCED TWO X-CLASS FLARES AS IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB. THE FIRST WAS AN X3/1N AT 22/0642UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 340 SFU TENFLARE, A SIGNIFICANT TYPE II RADIO SWEEP, A MINOR TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THE SECOND FLARE WAS AN X2/2N AT 22/1623UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THIS SUDDEN INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS WAS SURPRISING GIVEN THE STABILITY EXHIBITED BY REGION 8384 DURING RECENT DAYS. A OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 22/1839UT. THE REMAINING REGIONS APPEARED STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. REGION 8384 APPEARS CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF VIEW. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A SOLAR PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT WAS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHONOUS ALTITUDE FOLLOWING TODAY'S X3/1N FLARE. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME ENHANCED AROUND 22/0700UT, THEN RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 22/1200UT. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME ENHANCED AROUND 22/0800UT AND WAS GRADUALLY DECLINING TOWARD BACKGROUND LEVELS AT THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY, BARRING ANOTHER PROTON FLARE FROM REGION 8384.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 23 NOV tot 25 NOV
Klasse M70%50%30%
Klasse X30%05%01%
Proton20%10%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       22 NOV 126
  Voorspelt   23 NOV-25 NOV  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        22 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV  012/009-015/009-015/009
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 23 NOV tot 25 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities05%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%40%40%
Kleine stormcondities05%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%05%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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