Archief bekijken van woensdag 30 december 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 364 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 DEC 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8421 (N26W14) PRODUCED ALL OF TODAY'S FLARES, INCLUDING THE ONLY M-CLASS EVENT: AN M1/SF AT 0546Z. THE GROUP SHOWED SLOW GROWTH TODAY, PRIMARILY BY MEANS OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE LEADER PART OF THE GROUP INTO A SINGLE, LARGE PENUMBRAL REGION. THE REGION PRODUCED FREQUENT SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, 7 OF WHICH WERE LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE STORAGE OF NON-POTENTIAL MAGNETIC ENERGY IN THE REGION IS PROMPTLY DISSIPATED BY THESE FREQUENT SMALL EVENTS. REGION 8419 (N26W65) DECREASED SLOWLY TODAY AND WAS VERY STABLE. NEW REGION 8425 (S26E50) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SIMPLE, SMALL, BIPOLAR SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8421 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ANY M-CLASS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM THIS REGION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE FIRST THREE HOURS OF THE REPORTING PERIOD BEGAN WITH MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS REPORTING ACTIVE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS CALMED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 0000-0700Z WITH ACTIVITY ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN QUIET AND UNSETTLED. SINCE 0700Z, HOWEVER, THE FIELD HAS BEEN VERY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. AN EXAMINATION OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT BZ SHOWED A NORTHWARD TURNING OF THE FIELD TO ABOUT +5 NT AT 0500Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO EFFECTS FROM A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE SECOND DAY, BUT QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 31 DEC tot 02 JAN
Klasse M65%65%65%
Klasse X15%15%15%
Proton15%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       30 DEC 179
  Voorspelt   31 DEC-02 JAN  172/165/160
  90 Day Mean        30 DEC 136
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 DEC  010/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 DEC  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 DEC-02 JAN  010/010-007/010-005/007
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 31 DEC tot 02 JAN
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief15%15%10%
Kleine stormcondities05%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief15%15%10%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%

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