Archief bekijken van vrijdag 12 februari 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 043 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 12 FEB 1999 ********CORRECTED COPY*********************************************

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 11-2100Z tot 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN M1/1N FLARE ERUPTED IN REGION 8457 (N15E23) AT 12/0325Z. ASSOCIATED TYPE II/IV SWEEPS ALSO OCCURRED WITH MODERATE CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. A C5/SF ALSO OCCURRED IN THIS REGION AT 12/1527Z WHILE SLOW GROWTH WAS NOTED IN WHITE LIGHT BOTH IN AREA COVERAGE AND SPOT COUNT. FREQUENT LOW C-CLASS FLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8456 (N23E04) AND 8458 (S23E29). THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN REGION 8458 HAS FADED BUT THE REGION REMAINS COMPLEX WITH GOOD FLARE POTENTIAL. REGION 8456 APPEARED TO SIMPLIFY WITH SLIGHT DECAY OBSERVED IN WHITE LIGHT. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: REGIONS 8461 (S32E27), 8462 (N20E34), 8463 (S16E61), AND 8464 (N19E64). THE ADDITION OF THESE FOUR NEW REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK RESULT IN A TOTAL OF EIGHT SPOTTED REGIONS EAST OF CENTRAL MERIDIAN. THE OFFICIAL 10.7CM FLUX FOR 12 FEB WAS 188 FLUX UNITS, MAKING IT THE HIGHEST OBSERVED 10.7CM FLUX SO FAR THIS CYCLE.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8457 AND 8458 HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8456, THOUGH DECAYING SOMEWHAT, HAS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH AN ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIOD DURING 12/06-09Z. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION BUT A HIGH SPEED STREAM ASSOCIATED A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IS LIKELY CAUSING THE DISTURBED CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIOD AT HIGH LATITUDES. EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 13 FEB tot 15 FEB
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton10%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       12 FEB 188
  Voorspelt   13 FEB-15 FEB  190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        12 FEB 141
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB  016/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB  025/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB  012/015-008/012-008/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 13 FEB tot 15 FEB
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief60%15%15%
Kleine stormcondities20%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief70%20%20%
Kleine stormcondities25%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:26/10/2019Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2019:244
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:17

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12013X1.0
22003M1.7
32000C9.1
42003C9.1
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ApG
1199422G1
2200120
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*sinds 1994

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