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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 060 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 01 MAR 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 28-2100Z tot 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8471 (N28W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ON 28 FEB, PRIOR TO THE M6/2B, THIS REGION DEVELOPED A DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF MODERATE STRENGTH. IN THE INTERIM, THIS DELTA FADED AND OVERALL THE REGION DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE. THE MAIN NEUTRAL LINE IN THIS REGION WAS ALMOST LINEAR SUGGESTING MAGNETIC SHEAR AT THAT LOCATION, BUT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA WERE NOT AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THIS SUPPOSITION. REGION 8475 (N32E16) EXHIBITED GROWTH AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. A DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION MAY BE FORMING IN THIS REGION. TWO SMALL AREAS OF PLAGE AND SPOTS EMERGED NEAR S15W07. THERE WERE NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8478. THIS AREA MAY BE SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE REGIONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8471 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT FLARE FREQUENCY SHOULD DECREASE AS DECAY CONTINUES. REGION 8475 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS SHOULD GROWTH AND INCREASING MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY CONTINUE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIODS WERE 01/0000-0600Z AND 01/1200-1800Z. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED A LOW SPEED, HIGH DENSITY FLOW WITH NORTHWARD BZ DURING THE DISTURBANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS DISTURBANCE WAS RELATED TO A FILAMENT DISRUPTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ON 24-25 FEB. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS INCREASING AND DENSITY WAS DECREASING.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. A SMALL CORONAL HOLE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EARTH'S FIELD ON 02-03 MAR.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 02 MAR tot 04 MAR
Klasse M50%40%40%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       01 MAR 120
  Voorspelt   02 MAR-04 MAR  120/120/118
  90 Day Mean        01 MAR 144
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 FEB  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAR  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAR-04 MAR  015/015-012/012-012/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 02 MAR tot 04 MAR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%20%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%20%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:26/10/2019Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2019:239
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:12

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
11999M8.0
21999M5.6
32005M3.9
41999M2.8
52005M2.6
ApG
1199841G2
2200338G1
3201237G2
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5201412
*sinds 1994

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