Het archief bekijken van woensdag 03 maart 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 062 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 03 MAR 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 02-2100Z tot 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8471 (N29W52) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 03/0128Z AND A C4/SF AT 03/0345Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8476 (N18W22) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 03/0602Z AND A C1/SF AT 03/1654Z. CONTINUED GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION AND MINOR MIXED POLARITIES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8475 (N31W10) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES WAS ALSO VISIBLE IN THIS REGION. BEGINNING AT 03/1841Z, THE MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE FROM NEAR SW20.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8471, 8475, AND 8476. EACH OF THESE REGIONS IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8476 COULD MAKE IT THE PREDOMINANT FLARE PRODUCING REGION ON THE SUN. OVERALL ACTIVITY LEVELS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BEGINNING ON 6 MAR AS PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE PLANETARY K-INDEX REACHED ACTIVE LEVELS IN THE 03/1500-2100Z INTERVAL. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED APPROXIMATELY 100 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD AND BZ WAS NORTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME MODERATE.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SLIGHT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 06 MAR. BEGINNING THEN, BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 04 MAR tot 06 MAR
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       03 MAR 137
  Voorspelt   04 MAR-06 MAR  140/143/150
  90 Day Mean        03 MAR 143
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR  008/013-008/009-010/009
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 04 MAR tot 06 MAR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%20%30%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%25%30%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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