Het archief bekijken van woensdag 10 maart 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 069 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 10 MAR 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 09-2100Z tot 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8484 (S23E54) PRODUCED A C3/1F FLARE AT 09/2257UT. THREE ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8485 (N22E40) IS NOW THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND SHOWED FLUCTUATIONS AND WEAK SUBFLARE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8477 (S28W46) INCREASED SIZE TODAY, BUT APPEARED TO BE STABLE. A 45-DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S53E06 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 10/0021Z AND 10/1423Z.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8485, 8484 OR 8477. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A WEAK SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT ACE AT 10/0040Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 10/0130Z (MEASURED AS 13 NT ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER). THE SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM 0300-0600Z. ACE SIGNATURES WERE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORT LIVED BUT GEOEFFECTIVE TRANSIENT (DURATION OF PREDOMINANTLY NEGATIVE BZ WAS ABOUT 10 HOURS). CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH QUIET TO UNSETTLED PREVAILING FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER, FOR AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM TODAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION LATE ON THE THIRD DAY OR PERHAPS THE FOURTH DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 11 MAR tot 13 MAR
Klasse M20%20%20%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       10 MAR 135
  Voorspelt   11 MAR-13 MAR  145/150/155
  90 Day Mean        10 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR  019/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR  030/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR  015/015-010/008-015/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 11 MAR tot 13 MAR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%15%25%
Kleine stormcondities05%05%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%15%35%
Kleine stormcondities10%05%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%05%

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