Archief bekijken van donderdag 24 juni 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 175 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 JUN 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST X-RAY FLARE WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 EVENT AT 23/2316Z. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX REMAINED ABOVE C-LEVEL THRESHOLDS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH FREQUENT IMBEDDED C-CLASS FLARES. OVER TWENTY OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED, NEARLY ALL OF THEM FROM THE EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF GROUPS IN THE NE QUADRANT. TWO DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS WERE SEEN. THE FIRST OCCURRED AT APPROXIMATELY 24/1200Z; IT ORIGINATED NEAR REGION 8595 (N23W21) AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A CLASSIC HYDER TYPE FLARE AND NEARLY THREE HOURS OF ENHANCED X-RAY FLUX LEVELS. THE SECOND FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT APPROXIMATELY 24/1830Z FROM AN AREA NEAR REGION 8598 (N23E28). IT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY OPTICAL FLARES NEAR THE FILAMENT FOOTPOINTS AND APPROXIMATELY NINETY MINUTES OF ENHANCED X-RAY FLUX. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY; THEY ARE REGIONS 8604 (N12W54), 8605 (S22W32), AND 8606 (N17E33).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE NE GROUP CLUSTER INCREASES THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG FLARE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR STORMING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FLARE ASSOCIATED CMES, WHICH OCCURRED ON 22/1829Z AND 23/0709Z, ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FIRST TWO DAYS. TODAY'S EARLY DISAPPEARING FILAMENT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 JUN tot 27 JUN
Klasse M60%60%60%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       24 JUN 185
  Voorspelt   25 JUN-27 JUN  180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        24 JUN 139
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUN  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUN  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUN-27 JUN  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 JUN tot 27 JUN
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%35%40%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%40%50%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%10%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
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Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:16

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