Archief bekijken van zaterdag 26 juni 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 177 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 26 JUN 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 25-2100Z tot 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8598 (N23E02) PRODUCED AN M2/2N AT 0512Z. THE GROUP CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK AND PRODUCED ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8602 (N17E35) IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE LOOKING WITH BRIGHT, FLUCTUATING PLAGE BUT COULD ONLY PRODUCE A SUBFLARE. REGION 8596 (N22W12) WAS ALSO ACTIVE A CONTRIBUTED A C4/1N FLARE AT 1650Z.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8598 AND 8602 ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY CENTERS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8598. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 0215Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF MODERATELY NEGATIVE SOUTHWARD INTERPLANETARY FIELD. A 16 NT SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 0326Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. A SECOND SHOCK WAS SEEN AT ACE AT 1925Z, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 2020Z WHICH MEASURED 38 NT IN BOULDER. AS OF FORECAST FILE TIME THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD WAS ORIENTED NORTHWARDS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NATURE OF THE PLASMA AND FIELDS BEHIND THE 20/1925Z SHOCK AT ACE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN AND COULD BE GEOEFFECTIVE. THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF 24/1200Z.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 27 JUN tot 29 JUN
Klasse M55%55%55%
Klasse X15%15%15%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       26 JUN 200
  Voorspelt   27 JUN-29 JUN  205/205/205
  90 Day Mean        26 JUN 141
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN  014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN  010/012-010/012-015/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 27 JUN tot 29 JUN
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%20%30%
Kleine stormcondities05%05%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%25%35%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%10%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:26/10/2019Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2019:271
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:44

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

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