Archief bekijken van zaterdag 28 augustus 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 240 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 28 AUG 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 27-2100Z tot 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED HIGH. REGION 8674 PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE X1/ AT 28/1805Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1000 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ, STRONG TYPE II EMISSION, AND MAUNA LOA OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION AT SW60. REGION 8674 ALSO PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 28/0102Z WITH A 290 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ. THIS REGION WAS STABLE IN AREA AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRAILER WHERE A DELTA CONFIGURATION AND HIGH GRADIENTS EXISTED. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA SHOWED SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ONLY IN THAT AREA. OTHER REGIONS WERE GENERALLY STABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW REGION 8681 (N21E09). THIS REGION EMERGED RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD AND CONSISTS OF BRIGHT PLAGE AND MANY SMALL SPOTS. SEVERAL CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, NONE APPEAR TO BE DIRECTED SQUARELY AT THE EARTH.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8674 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS AND OCCASIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS POSSESS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS - CONTINUED GROWTH IN NEW REGION 8681 WOULD PUT IT IN THAT CATEGORY AS WELL. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE EARTH CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE A HIGH SPEED LOW DENSITY SOLAR WIND STREAM. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS NEAR 28/1200Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE 29-30 AUG PERIOD. ON 31 AUG, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE X1/CME EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE ONLY AN OBLIQUE HIT FROM THIS EVENT AND ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THERE IS A MODERATE POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD FROM REGION 8674.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 29 AUG tot 31 AUG
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X50%50%50%
Proton40%40%40%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       28 AUG 248
  Voorspelt   29 AUG-31 AUG  240/238/225
  90 Day Mean        28 AUG 168
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  013/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  010/010-010/010-012/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 29 AUG tot 31 AUG
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief10%20%20%
Kleine stormcondities05%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief10%25%25%
Kleine stormcondities05%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%05%

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