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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 241 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 29 AUG 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 28-2100Z tot 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C9/1N FROM REGION 8681 (N22W03) AT 29/1731Z. THIS REGION CONTINUED TO EMERGE RAPIDLY AND EXHIBITED AN ABNORMAL MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF A NEGATIVE ISLAND SURROUNDED BY POSITIVE POLARITY. REGION 8674 (S23W40) STABILIZED. THE LARGEST EVENT IT PRODUCED WAS A C4/SF AT 29/1229Z. THIS REGION MAINTAINED THE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IT HAS EXHIBITED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT IT SHOWED NO REGION DYNAMICS SUCH AS GROWTH AND SPOT PROPER MOTION. THE X1 FLARE AT 28/1805Z PRODUCED A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. REGION 8674 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING M-CLASS AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF EVENTS SHOULD LESSEN AS THIS REGION BEGINS A SLOW PERIOD OF DECAY. REGION 8681 SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND NOW POSSESSES THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD TO JUST OVER 500 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE HIGH.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NONE OF MANY RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH HEAD-ON BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLANKS OF SOME OF THE CMES COULD REACH THE EARTH. THEREFORE, ISOLATED ACTIVE, TO POSSIBLY MINOR STORM, PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR 1-2 MORE DAYS. THE POSSIBLY EXISTS FOR A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8674 IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 30 AUG tot 01 SEP
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X40%40%40%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       29 AUG 218
  Voorspelt   30 AUG-01 SEP  220/217/197
  90 Day Mean        29 AUG 168
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  010/012-012/015-012/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 30 AUG tot 01 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief15%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities05%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief15%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities05%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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