Archief bekijken van maandag 30 augustus 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 242 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 AUG 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8681 (N21W16) PRODUCED AN M3/2B AT 30/1805Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II. THE GROWTH RATE SLOWED IN THIS REGION BUT IT MAINTAINED ITS ANOMALOUS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8674 (S24W50) PRODUCED A C9/1N AT 30/1448Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED MODERATE DECAY IN SUNSPOT NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE. NOTIFICATION WAS RECEIVED OF A PARTIAL HALO CME EVENT WITH THE X1 FLARE AT 28/1805Z FROM REGION 8674. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MATERIAL WAS SEEN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC AND THE EVENT IS DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THERE WAS A HALO CME WITH THE M3 FLARE ABOVE FROM REGION 8681.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8674 AND 8681. X-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8674 BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DECREASES AS THE REGION DECAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 30/0800-1200Z INTERVAL. DURING THAT TIME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE IMPACT OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION. RATHER, BZ TURNED SOUTHWARD PRIOR TO THAT TIME WHILE OTHER SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REMAINED UNREMARKABLE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 31 AUG. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CME/X1 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. HAD THE CME BEEN AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH, A MUCH LARGER STORM WOULD BE EXPECTED. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 01-02 SEP. THE FORECAST FOR 02 SEP WILL BECOME ELEVATED IF NOTIFICATION IS RECEIVED THAT THE M3/2B EVENT TODAY PRODUCED A HALO OR PARTIAL HALO CME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 31 AUG tot 02 SEP
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       30 AUG 198
  Voorspelt   31 AUG-02 SEP  194/185/165
  90 Day Mean        30 AUG 169
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 31 AUG tot 02 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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