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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 243 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 31 AUG 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 30-2100Z tot 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8681 (N22W30) PRODUCED FOUR MID TO HIGH LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C8/SF AT 31/0554Z. THIS REGION BEGAN TO DECAY BUT RETAINED ITS ANOMALOUS MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. IN PARTICULAR, THE CENTER NEGATIVE FIELDS HAVE BECOME PINCHED. REGION 8674 (S23W60) CONTINUED TO DECAY AND PRODUCED ONLY A FEW MINOR SUBFLARES. THIS REGION RETAINED SOME MIXED POLARITIES BUT THE DELTA CONFIGURATION APPEARED TO FADE. THE M3/2B FROM REGION 8681 AT 30/1805Z DID IN FACT PRODUCE A CORONAL MASS EJECTION. HOWEVER, THE CME WAS FAIRLY NARROW IN LONGITUDINAL EXTENT AND APPEARED TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8681 AND 8674 REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS BUT THAT CAPABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS DECAY IN THESE REGIONS CONTINUES. THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECAY PHASE MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8674 REMAINS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PRIMARILY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 31/0600-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD TO NEAR 600 KM/S BUT NO SHOCKS WERE OBSERVED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME DUE TO OBLIQUE IMPACTS FROM RECENT CMES THAT WERE NOT DIRECTLY AIMED AT THE EARTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT FROM REGION 8674 DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 SEP tot 03 SEP
Klasse M50%40%30%
Klasse X20%20%15%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       31 AUG 183
  Voorspelt   01 SEP-03 SEP  175/160/148
  90 Day Mean        31 AUG 169
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG  013/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  012/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 SEP tot 03 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities15%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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