Het archief bekijken van woensdag 01 september 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 244 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 01 SEP 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 31-2100Z tot 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C6/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8674 (S24W72). NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, THE X-RAY BACKGROUND LEVEL WAS NEAR OR EXCEEDED C1 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SURGING WAS REPORTED ON THE WEST LIMB NEAR S20 AS REGION 8673 (S19W94) ROUNDED THE LIMB. A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S10W25 ON 8/31/1500 UT WAS GONE BY 9/01/1538 UT. FILAMENT GROWTH WAS NOTED NEAR S25W10.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8674 AND REGION 8681. BOTH REGIONS ARE MODERATELY MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR REGIONS 8686 (S24W09) AND 8679 (S36W17). IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH ONE PERIOD AT MINOR STORMS LEVELS (06-09 UT). THIS ACTIVITY WAS CAUSED BY RELATIVELY STEADY, MODERATE VELOCITY (NEAR 550 KM/S) SOLAR WIND WITH A CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWARD MAGNETIC FIELD (NEAR 5 NT). THE SECTOR POLARITY WAS POSITIVE (AWAY). ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS AT STORM LEVELS. THE OVERALL LEVEL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TOWARD PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS POSSIBLE BUT IS NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 02 SEP tot 04 SEP
Klasse M50%40%30%
Klasse X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       01 SEP 163
  Voorspelt   02 SEP-04 SEP  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        01 SEP 169
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP  020/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP  018/012-015/012-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 02 SEP tot 04 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%15%10%
Kleine stormcondities15%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%20%20%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%05%05%

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