Archief bekijken van donderdag 14 oktober 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 287 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 14 OCT 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8731 (N29E24) PRODUCED AN X1/1N FLARE AT 0900Z. THE EVENT WAS RATHER IMPULSIVE BUT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 8731 HAS SHOWN REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DELTA SPOT FORMING IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION, JUST IN FRONT OF THE DOMINANT TRAILER. REGION 8732 (N20E16) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH BUT WAS QUIET. REGION 8728 (N22E00) APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A HIGH LATITUDE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N70W50 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/1524Z AND 14/1529Z.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY MODERATE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8731.IF THE CURRENT TREND IN 8731 CONTINUES THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8732 AND 8728 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE PRODUCTION OF MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE. THERE WAS A PERIOD OF MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDE FROM 1500-1800Z. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE ON THE 2ND DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS EARLY IN THE DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 15 OCT tot 17 OCT
Klasse M65%65%65%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton10%15%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       14 OCT 200
  Voorspelt   15 OCT-17 OCT  200/200/200
  90 Day Mean        14 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT  021/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT  020/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT  020/025-010/020-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 15 OCT tot 17 OCT
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%10%10%
Kleine stormcondities15%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%15%15%
Kleine stormcondities20%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%01%01%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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