Archief bekijken van woensdag 10 november 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 314 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 10 NOV 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 09-2100Z tot 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGION 8759 (N10E33) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/0140Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE VERY LITTLE MAGNETIC SHEAR IN THIS LARGE REGION. REGION 8753 (N19W23) BEGAN A GROWTH PHASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF AT 10/1549Z. THE NUMBER OF SMALL SPOTS IN THIS REGION NEARLY DOUBLED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8760 (N13W03) GENERATED A C5/SF AT 10/0334Z. THE RATE OF GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8761 (N20E26) PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 10/1952Z. A MODERATE SIZE CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED AT S13E75 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8763. THIS AREA PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8753, 8759, 8761 AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/2100-10/0000Z. DURING THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECREASED TO NEAR 520 KM/S. THIS DECREASE WAS NOT OBSERVED FROM THIS CORONAL HOLE LAST SOLAR ROTATION. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 11-12 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE EXTENSIVE AND FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE STREAM WOULD CEASE BEFORE 12 NOV. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR 13 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 11 NOV tot 13 NOV
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       10 NOV 249
  Voorspelt   11 NOV-13 NOV  255/260/262
  90 Day Mean        10 NOV 158
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  024/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  018/018-018/018-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 11 NOV tot 13 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%40%25%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%01%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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