Archief bekijken van donderdag 11 november 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 315 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 11 NOV 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, REGION 8753 (N18W36) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 10/2213Z. MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. DECAY OCCURRED IN THIS REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8759 (N10E20) GENERATED A C8/1N AT 11/1449Z. THIS REGION ALSO DECAYED IN WHITE LIGHT AREA DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N13W17) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUED TO EMERGE BUT AT A SLOW RATE. A MODERATE SIZE NEW REGION, 8765 (S10E73), ROTATED OVER THE LIMB BEHIND REGION 8763 (S14E60). REGION 8763 PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY MODERATE. REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 REMAIN AS THE LIKELY SOURCES OF M-CLASS FLARES DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND SLIGHTLY MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. HOWEVER, SEVERAL OTHER LESSER REGIONS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 11/0300-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED TO AROUND 650 KM/S AND DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING THE EARTH REMAINS IN THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM MENTIONED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. NO SOHO CORONAGRAPH DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE 08 NOV.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN DISTURBED ON 12 NOV. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. ON 13 NOV, THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AS THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 14 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 12 NOV tot 14 NOV
Klasse M70%70%70%
Klasse X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       11 NOV 240
  Voorspelt   12 NOV-14 NOV  242/245/245
  90 Day Mean        11 NOV 159
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  023/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  018/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 12 NOV tot 14 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%30%10%
Kleine stormcondities25%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%30%15%
Kleine stormcondities30%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%01%01%

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