Archief bekijken van zondag 21 november 1999

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 325 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 21 NOV 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 20-2100Z tot 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8765 (S12W60) PRODUCED THREE M-CLASS FLARES, AN M1/1N AT 21/0014Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 280 SFU TENFLARE, AN M2/SN AT 21/1017Z, AND AN M3/2N AT 21/1820Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 270 SFU TENFLARE. THIS REGION SHOWED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY, BUT REMAINED LARGE AND STRUCTURALLY COMPLEX, POSSIBLY INCLUDING A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION WITHIN ITS INTERIOR SPOTS. REGION 8771 (S16E01) SHOWED A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION WITHIN ITS TRAILER PORTION AND UNDERWENT MINOR DEVELOPMENT. IT PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 20/2235Z ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. VELOCITY 700 KM/SEC). REGION 8768 (N16W65) SHOWED A MINOR INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT X-RAY EMISSION. REGION 8766 (N18W36) DECAYED SLIGHTLY. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8777 (S26E40) AND 8778 (S14E62).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8765 AND 8771 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE, ESPECIALLY FROM REGION 8765. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED AROUND 21/0600Z FOLLOWING A 3-HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 23 NOVEMBER DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 22 NOV tot 24 NOV
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       21 NOV 210
  Voorspelt   22 NOV-24 NOV  195/185/170
  90 Day Mean        21 NOV 167
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 NOV  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 NOV  015/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 NOV-24 NOV  012/015-015/018-012/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 22 NOV tot 24 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%35%25%
Kleine stormcondities10%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities15%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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Laatste geomagnetische storm:02/09/2019Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2019:185
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:15

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

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