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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 358 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 DEC 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. MOST OF THESE WERE FROM REGIONS 8798 (S13W73) AND 8806 (N20W14). THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C8 AT 0934Z WHICH WAS NOT SEEN OPTICALLY. GOOD QUALITY OBSERVATIONS TODAY CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF REGION 8806, AN AREA OF STRONG AND APPARENTLY SHEARED MAGNETIC FIELDS. HOWEVER, THERE WERE NOT ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS GROUP. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED FROM WEST LIMB AT N22 BETWEEN 1430-1511Z AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A C1 X-RAY EVENT. NEW REGION 8809 (N21E67) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY. LASCO DIFFERENCE IMAGE ANALYSIS OF THE CME ACTIVITY ON 22 DECEMBER SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A FAINT, 360 DEGREE HALO FOR BOTH EVENTS. THE BULK OF THE MATERIAL FROM BOTH CME'S APPEARED TO BE DIRECTED NORTHWARDS, IMPLYING ONLY A SMALL COMPONENT OF THE CME VELOCITY IN THE EARTHWARD DIRECTION.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8806 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AN M-CLASS EVENT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE FROM THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 0600-1200Z. THE INCREASE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A REVERSAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SECTOR MAGNETIC POLARITY FROM A TOWARDS TO AN AWAY CONFIGURATION.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS, ESPECIALLY IF THE CME'S OF 22 DECEMBER SHOULD HAPPEN TO HIT EARTH WITH A GLANCING BLOW. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 DEC tot 27 DEC
Klasse M70%70%70%
Klasse X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       24 DEC 182
  Voorspelt   25 DEC-27 DEC  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        24 DEC 174
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 DEC  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC  009/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC  010/015-012/020-005/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 DEC tot 27 DEC
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%10%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%35%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%

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