Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 23 mei 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 May 23 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 144 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 23 MAY 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 22-2100Z tot 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C9/2F FROM REGION 9002 (N20W37). THIS REGION, DESPITE OBVIOUS DECAY IN WHITE LIGHT, EMERGED AS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL FLARES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SPOTLESS, UNNUMBERED REGION NEAR N07W05 PRODUCED A C5/1N AT 23/1106Z. REGION 8996 (S20W77) CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ACTIVE, BUT ALL FLARE ACTIVITY WAS IN THE LOW C-CLASS CATEGORY. REGION 9004 (N12W48) EXHIBITED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE BUT DEVELOPED INCREASED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 23/1945Z.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8996, 9002 AND 9004 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PRECEDED A WEAK SHOCK OBSERVED AT ACE AT 23/1625Z. THE ACE SIGNATURE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A GEOEFFECTIVE TRANSIENT THAT LIKELY ORIGINATED FROM THE C7/1N FLARE AND CME AT 20/0535Z. BZ INITIALLY WENT NORTHWARD, BUT QUICKLY TURNED SOUTHWARD AT 23/1830Z REACHING NEAR -20NT AND RESULTING IN MINOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES. BZ RETURNED TO MORE NOMINAL CONDITIONS BY END OF PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE LIKELY THROUGH DAY ONE FOLLOWING TODAY'S SHOCK ARRIVAL. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 24 MAY tot 26 MAY
Klasse M50%50%40%
Klasse X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       23 MAY 204
  Voorspelt   24 MAY-26 MAY  195/185/180
  90 Day Mean        23 MAY 197
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY  018/018-015/010-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 24 MAY tot 26 MAY
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities30%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%40%40%
Kleine stormcondities40%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%05%05%

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