Het archief bekijken van maandag 16 oktober 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Oct 16 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 290 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 16 Oct 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of the day was an LDE M2 flare at 16/0728UT (1.75 hr), with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps. SOHO/LASCO and EIT imagery suggest a CME source behind the west limb - most likely Region 9182, at about N04W105. An associated full halo (with faint east limb extension) was also reported by SOHO/LASCO. Prior to this event, a weaker LDE C7 flare was observed at 16/0549UT. Optical correlation was not available, but EIT imagery suggests the likely source as Region 9193 (N06W74). This region also produced a C1/Sf at 16/2020UT. Other activity was limited to region 9199 (N12E54), producing a C1/Sf at 16/1711UT. Region 9194 (S11E09) exhibited growth in spot count and magnetic complexity (now a Dai group in Beta-Gamma mag configuration), but produced no flares. Region 9200 (S16E58) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with an isolated chance of moderate-level activity for the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Coronal hole high speed stream effects were evident, but produced only one active period during 16/00-03UT. A 10 MeV solar proton event associated with the M2 LDE commenced at 16/1125UT, and remains in progress.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled through day one, with some possibility of isolated active conditions due to waning coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV SPE currently in progress is expected to end during day one. A greater chance of active levels during day two may result from flanking passage of a CME-associated shock from the LDE M2 flare discussed above. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 17 Oct tot 19 Oct
Klasse M30%30%30%
Klasse X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       16 Oct 161
  Voorspelt   17 Oct-19 Oct  160/165/175
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 175
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/008
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  011/010
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  010/010-012/015-008/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 17 Oct tot 19 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%35%30%
Kleine stormcondities10%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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