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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Mar 27 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 086 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 27 Mar 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9401 (N22E30) produced an impulsive M2/1N event at 27/1630Z. This event had an associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 500 km/s. Region 9393 (N17E11) grew significantly in area overnight and maintains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration; however, the region has only produced C-class X-ray events during the period. Several other C-class events occurred from Regions 9390 (N14W22), and 9402 (N14W11). New Region 9404 (S06E66) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active. Two different shocks were observed on the ACE spacecraft. The first shock occurred at 27/0108Z with an associated sudden impulse of 27 nT on the Boulder magnetometer at 27/0145Z. This activity was believed to be associated with the CME back on 24 March. The second shock occurred at 27/1718Z with an associated sudden impulse of 10 nT observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 27/1745Z. The second shock was believed to be associated with the halo CME on 25 March. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchonous orbit was enhanced during the period, but stayed below event threshold with an observed maximum of approximately 6 pfu.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled to minor storm conditions with isolated major storm conditions possible during the first day of the period. This possible increase in activity is due to the faint full halo CME seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery on 25 March at approximately 1700Z. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to predominately quiet to unsettled conditions the rest of the period with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 28 Mar tot 30 Mar
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       27 Mar 273
  Voorspelt   28 Mar-30 Mar  235/240/240
  90 Day Mean        27 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 26 Mar  002/006
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  015/015
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  020/025-015/015-008/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 28 Mar tot 30 Mar
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities30%20%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities40%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%10%05%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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