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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 May 16 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 136 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 16 May 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9455 (S17W52) produced an M1/Sf flare at 16/1042 UTC as well as isolated C-class subflares. Minor development was reported in the interior portion of this region, where a mild mix of polarities has persisted. Region 9454 (N13W08) also displayed a small degree of magnetic complexity, but was stable through the period. Region 9458 (S12W72) produced a C2/Sf flare at 16/1550 UTC as it approached the west limb. This flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep and a CME, which did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 9461 (N16E63), which was the return of old Region 9433 (responsible for major flares during it previous two rotations), was relatively stable during the period. At present it is classed as a simple D-type group, but it is still too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9455. There is also a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9454. At present, it is difficult to gauge the flare potential of Region 9461, given its proximity to the east limb. However, given its rich history of flare production, it cannot be counted out as a source for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 17 May tot 19 May
Klasse M40%40%40%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       16 May 138
  Voorspelt   17 May-19 May  145/150/155
  90 Day Mean        16 May 167
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 15 May  010/016
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 16 May  012/015
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  012/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 17 May tot 19 May
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%25%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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