Archief bekijken van zaterdag 29 september 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Sep 29 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 272 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 29 Sep 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 28-2100Z tot 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Two M1/1f flares were observed -- the first at 28/2125 UTC from Region 9634 (N12W15), and the second a long duration event at 29/1106 UTC from Region 9636 (N13W02). For the latter event, SOHO/LASCO imagery suggests an associated faint halo with an earthward-directed component possible. Region 9628 (S17W62), the largest on the visible disk, also produced several optical flares with strong C-level enhancements throughout the first half of the period. New Region 9642 (N03E70) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate over the next three days. Isolated major flares are possible, particularly from Region 9628 and nearby Region 9632 (S18W48).
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 28-2100Z tot 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to active. A 17 nT sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 29/0940 UTC, preceded by an earlier shock passage observed on the ACE satellite. Several active periods occurred through the remainder of the day. Solar wind speed remains elevated and IMF signatures suggest the predominant influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The proton event which began on 25 September remains in progress but continues to wane, with current 10MeV flux levels at about 25 pfu.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly active for the next two days, under the combined influence of high speed stream effects and possible transient shock passages from the CME activity of 28 September. Isolated minor storm conditions may occur at higher latitudes during this period. Today's CME activity may further result in additional shock passage effects on day three. The proton event in progress is expected to end within the next 24 to 36 hours, barring further enhancement from any major flares.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 30 Sep tot 02 Oct
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton99%50%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       29 Sep 240
  Voorspelt   30 Sep-02 Oct  240/240/235
  90 Day Mean        29 Sep 175
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 28 Sep  010/013
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 29 Sep  015/020
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  020/030-020/020-018/018
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 30 Sep tot 02 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%30%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%10%10%

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