Archief bekijken van zondag 30 september 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Sep 30 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 273 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 Sep 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9628 (S17W76) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 30/1141 UTC associated with minor discrete frequency radio emission. Region 9628 may have decayed a bit as it approached the west limb, but remained large and complex. Decay was also noted in Region 9632 (S18W61) as its large interior spot mass began to split, which may have dissipated the magnetic delta structure contained therein. Nonetheless, this region remained large and complex. Region 9636 (N14W15), a reverse-polarity sunspot group, showed gradual development during the day. It was moderate in size and complexity as it produced isolated subflares, none of which were associated with significant X-ray or radio emission.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares will be possible from Regions 9628, 9632, and 9636. Regions 9628 and 9632 each could produce an isolated major flare before they rotate out of view on 01 and 02 October, respectively.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storm levels occurred globally during 29/2100 - 2400 UTC following a sustained period of southward IMF Bz (as measured by NASA's ACE spacecraft). Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels during 30/0000 - 1500 UTC, then increased to active levels for the rest of the period. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 30/1848 UTC. The source for this shock may have been a CME that followed a long-duration M3/2n flare from Region 9636 at 28/0830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event that began at 24/1215 UTC ended at 30/1710 UTC.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Active geomagnetic conditions will be possible during 01 - 02 October due to recent CME activity. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 03 October. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 9628 or 9632 during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 Oct tot 03 Oct
Klasse M80%75%70%
Klasse X25%20%10%
Proton20%15%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       30 Sep 236
  Voorspelt   01 Oct-03 Oct  230/225/225
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 176
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 29 Sep  019/021
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  012/012
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  020/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 Oct tot 03 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%50%35%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%15%01%

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