Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 09 november 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 313 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 09 Nov 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z

Activity remained at high levels due to an abundance of M-class flares (none of which reached major flare criteria). Region 9690 (S18E16) was responsible for most of the M-class flares including the largest of the day: an M3/1n flare at 09/0856 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained the largest and most complex on the disk with an area exceeding 1400 millions of the visible disk. It continued to grow in area and complexity with multiple magnetic delta configurations and strong magnetic field gradients. Region 9687 (S20W31) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 09/1841 UTC associated with weak Type II and IV radio sweeps and minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity with some polarity mixing evident in its leader spots, but showed no significant changes. Region 9692 (N06W39) showed significant growth during the period, but produced no flares. It remained simply-structured. Region 9684 (N06W95) rotated out of view. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Region 9690 may produce a major flare during the period. Region 9687 also provides a slight chance for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continued as it hovered near event threshold during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during most of the period. However, active conditions will be possible during the first two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 10 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 10 Nov tot 12 Nov
Klasse M90%90%90%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       09 Nov 271
  Voorspelt   10 Nov-12 Nov  260/265/270
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 211
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/005
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 10 Nov tot 12 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%30%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%05%

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