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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Jan 21 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 021 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 21 Jan 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 20-2100Z tot 21-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Newly assigned Region 269 (S09E76) produced the largest flare during the period, an M1.9 x-ray event with associated loops occurred at 21/1526 UTC (no optical flare reported due to source center being just beyond the east limb). Based on NASA/LASCO imagery, this event produced a CME and it is doubtful that it will become geoeffective. Unable to determine how mature this region is at the time of this writing due to it's proximity to the east limb. Region 260 (N14W00) produced several C-class events throughout the interval and became slightly more magnetically complex during the past 24 hours. A C8.1 flare (correlated using SOHO/EIT imagery) occurred at 21/0228 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 700 km/sec. A C4.1/Sf event occurred at 21/0557 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep (shock velocity estimated at 700 km/sec) and a Tenflare. A 36 degree disappearing solar filament was observed at the beginning of the period that produced a CME which does not appear to be earth-directed. Region 268 (N12E23) was also numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance of further M-class flare activity from region 269 pending further analysis as it rotates onto the visible disk.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 20-2100Z tot 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A lingering southern coronal hole extension high speed stream is believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels for day one of the forecast period. By day two a transequatorial recurrent high speed stream coronal hole should become geoeffective producing active to minor storm conditions with isolated major storm periods possible.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 22 Jan tot 24 Jan
Klasse M35%35%35%
Klasse X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       21 Jan 134
  Voorspelt   22 Jan-24 Jan  135/140/135
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 20 Jan  012/017
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  010/010
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  010/015-020/020-020/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 22 Jan tot 24 Jan
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%40%40%
Kleine stormcondities05%25%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%10%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%45%45%
Kleine stormcondities10%30%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%15%15%

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Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:19/02/2020Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2020:73
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:2

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12001X5.6
22004M2.4
32000M1.8
42006M1.4
52006M1.2
ApG
1200082G4
2199448G1
3201044G1
4201126G1
5200425G1
*sinds 1994

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