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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Apr 25 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 115 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 25 Apr 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. The largest flare of the period was an M1/Sf which occurred at 25/0540Z from Region 346 (N16E61) and had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 814 km/s. There seems to be little magnetic complexity to this region based on a single Hsx spot seen in white-light. Region 337 (S14W13) appears to have changed little since yesterday and remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 338 (N18W58) produced the majority of the flare activity throughout the interval which was limited to C-class events. Magnetically, this region appears to be in a decay phase as a single delta complex remains apparent verses the several complexes analyzed earlier in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm levels. High speed solar wind speeds along with embedded transient activity are believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24 April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on day two into day three.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 26 Apr tot 28 Apr
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       25 Apr 144
  Voorspelt   26 Apr-28 Apr  145/150/145
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 24 Apr  024/024
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  020/025
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 26 Apr tot 28 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief45%45%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%15%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%40%45%
Kleine stormcondities30%30%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%20%15%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:10/07/2019Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2019:132
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:14

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

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