Het archief bekijken van donderdag 29 mei 2003

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 May 29 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 149 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 29 May 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 28-2100Z tot 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45) once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 28-2100Z tot 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold levels through day one of the interval.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 30 May tot 01 Jun
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton80%50%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       29 May 138
  Voorspelt   30 May-01 Jun  145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        29 May 125
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 28 May  022/036
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 29 May  050/060
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 30 May tot 01 Jun
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%50%30%
Kleine stormcondities35%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities35%15%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief20%30%35%
Kleine stormcondities35%35%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities40%30%15%

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