Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 18 november 2003

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Nov 18 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 322 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 18 Nov 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 17-2100Z tot 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels again today. Region 501 (N03E09) produced several M-class flares today. A pair of M3/2n flares were the most notable, peak fluxes were at 18/0752Z and 18/0831Z. A filament channel to the south and west of this region erupted following the first flare. Strong radio bursts, a Tenflare, a Type IV, and two separate occurrences of Type II radio sweeps were also associated with this period of activity. LASCO imagery depicted a full halo CME as a result of the complex series of events that appears to have a fairly well connected Earth bound component to the plasma cloud. This region has shown some growth over the past 24 hours and has emerged into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The largest flare of the period was an M4 that occurred beyond the east limb at 18/1011Z and is thought to be from old Region 486 which should start to become visible on day one of the period. Region 507 (N10E78) was newly numbered today and is believed to be old Region 488. Region 506 (S23E72) was also numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 501 and 507 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 17-2100Z tot 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range between predominantly active to minor storm levels through much of the period. Minor storm conditions are expected around the middle of day one due to a glancing blow, from the partial halo CME that occurred as a result of the M4 flare that was recorded at 0905Z on the 17 of Nov. Isolated major to severe storm conditions are expected beginning around the middle of day two due to a second transient that is expected as the result of the complex M-class activity emanating a full halo CME today. Day three should see a return to predominantly active conditions with isolated minor storm possible at this time.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 19 Nov tot 21 Nov
Klasse M70%80%80%
Klasse X15%30%30%
Proton10%15%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       18 Nov 144
  Voorspelt   19 Nov-21 Nov  160/190/220
  90 Day Mean        18 Nov 129
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 17 Nov  021/034
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  018/021
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  025/040-040/050-030/030
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 19 Nov tot 21 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%40%55%
Kleine stormcondities20%35%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%25%15%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%20%40%
Kleine stormcondities40%50%35%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities25%30%20%

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