Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 16 juli 2004

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2004 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 198 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 16 Jul 2004

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 649 (S10E26) produced three X-class flares: an X1 at 0206 UTC, an X1/1f at 1041 UTC, and an X3/3b at 1355 UTC. All of these events were impulsive and none were associated with an obvious CME in the LASCO data. However, a weak type II radio sweep was observed in association with the X3 event. Region 649 has shown some consolidation of spots in the leader and in the trailer areas and the region is maintaining complexity - the delta configuration in the dominant trailer penumbra continues to be the primary location for the flare activity. Two new regions are just visible on the east limb in GOES-12 SXI images at S11 and N05. The region to the north rotated into view at (N05E88) and was assigned SWO region number 652.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 649 is expected to continue to produce M-class flares and has a fair chance for producing more major flare activity during the next three days (17-19 July). These events could become geoeffective (i.e. earthward directed CMEs or proton events) as the region evolves and as it moves near central meridian and into the western hemisphere.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there was one active period from 2100-2359 on 15 July.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (17-19 July). As noted previously, however, there is a possibility that Region 649 could produce some events that could increase geomagnetic activity during the forecast interval.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 17 Jul tot 19 Jul
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X35%35%35%
Proton15%20%25%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       16 Jul 147
  Voorspelt   17 Jul-19 Jul  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/009
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  010/010
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  010/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 17 Jul tot 19 Jul
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%25%25%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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