Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 09 november 2004

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2004 Nov 09 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 314 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 09 Nov 2004

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 696 (N08W50) produced several C-class flares and at 09/1719 UTC the region produced an M8.9/2n Tenflare (1000 sfu), accompanied by Type II (1866 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A 23-degree fragmented filament erupted south of the active region at the same time as the flare. The M8 flare was also accompanied by a very fast asymmetric full halo CME on LASCO imagery with a plane-of-sky speed of near 1800 km/s. Region 696 maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 698 (S09W84) produced several C-class flares during the period. Region 699 (S16E66) was numbered today. The 10 cm flux value observed today was flare enhanced.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696 is expected to produce M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The period began with active to major storm levels with solar wind speed elevated to 600 km/s. A 34 nT sudden impulse was observed at 09/0931 UTC, which was followed by major to severe storming and an increase of solar wind speed from 600 to 800 km/s. Another sudden impulse (46 nT) was observed at 1852 UTC and was followed by severe storm conditions to the end of the period. The GOES 10 and 12 spacecraft observed magnetopause crossings following the second sudden impulse. Solar wind speed increased from 650 to 800 km/s and Bz turned southward to 30 nT for over an hour. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910 UTC continued into the period, and the proton flux ended the period at 55 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was at high levels today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm conditions on 10-11 November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare observed today should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 12 November.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 10 Nov tot 12 Nov
Klasse M75%70%65%
Klasse X20%20%15%
Proton99%25%15%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       09 Nov 141
  Voorspelt   10 Nov-12 Nov  120/115/110
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 110
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 08 Nov  116/189
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  085/100
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  030/040-045/050-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 10 Nov tot 12 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%35%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%25%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief45%30%45%
Kleine stormcondities30%40%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%30%10%

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