Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 22 januari 2005

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 022 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 22 Jan 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There were three C-class flares: a C3 at 0432 UTC from the west limb at S07, a C1 at 1245 UTC from the west limb at N14, and a C1 at 2053 UTC from the west limb at N15. The first flare was probably from old Region 719 which recently rotated around west limb, and the other two were probably from Region 720 which rotated off the disk today. With the departure of Region 720, Region 725 (S04W49) is now the largest group on the disk with an area of about 190 millionths. Region 725 has been growing steadily but so far has produced only minor flare activity.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a chance for an M-class event, and a slight chance for a major flare event, from Region 720 during the next 24 hours (23 January). However, the likelihood for M-class or higher level events is expected to decline strongly for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 January) as the region gets further beyond the west limb.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from the beginning of the period (21/2100 UTC) through 22/0600 UTC. Since 0600 UTC conditions have been mostly unsettled. Solar wind signatures show a steady decline in velocity from around 950 km/s at the beginning of the interval down to about 650 km/s by 22/2100 UTC. Bz has been weak and density has been low since 22/0200 UTC up to the current time. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes continued to decline today and appear to have dropped below threshold of 10 PFU after 22/1755 UTC.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active tomorrow (23 January) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with some active periods are expected for 24-25 January.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 23 Jan tot 25 Jan
Klasse M40%25%10%
Klasse X20%10%01%
Proton20%10%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       22 Jan 102
  Voorspelt   23 Jan-25 Jan  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 21 Jan  030/061
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  020/030
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  016/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 23 Jan tot 25 Jan
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%25%25%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%30%
Kleine stormcondities30%30%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%05%

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