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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Jul 15 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 196 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 15 Jul 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 14-2100Z tot 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N09, L=056) produced an impulsive M1 flare at 14/2257Z. Region 786 continues to be very active as it rotates around the west limb. It was the source of a very long duration C2 flare between 15/0943 - 1715Z. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb on LASCO imagery. Another flare and CME from this region was in progress at the time of issue. At 15/2100Z the flare was at the C3 x-ray level, and still increasing. A 280 sfu Tenflare was also observed with this event. Region 790 (S10W67) exhibited growth and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration during the period. It produced occasional low C-class x-ray flares. The rest of the visible disk and limb was stable.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 786 is still producing C-class activity from behind the west limb. Flare activity from this region will subside over the next day. Region 790 is expected to produce occasional C-class flares. Very low activity levels are possible on 18 July as this region rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 14-2100Z tot 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near 400 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z. The proton flux gradually decreased to near 60 pfu by the end of the period. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CMEs associated with the major flare activity on 13 and 14 July, may generate active to minor geomagnetic storm periods on 16 and 17 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to persist through 16 July. A new influx of particles from today's CMEs may prolong the existing proton event.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 16 Jul tot 18 Jul
Klasse M15%15%05%
Klasse X05%01%01%
Proton99%30%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       15 Jul 087
  Voorspelt   16 Jul-18 Jul  085/080/080
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 14 Jul  007/011
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/008
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  020/025-015/020-005/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 16 Jul tot 18 Jul
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%40%20%
Kleine stormcondities30%20%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%45%25%
Kleine stormcondities35%25%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%10%01%

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