Archief bekijken van woensdag 07 september 2005

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Sep 07 2204 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 250 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 07 Sep 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 06-2100Z tot 07-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels this period as newly numbered Region 808 (S12E83) produced one of the largest solar flares of Cycle 23. An X17/3b white light flare erupted in this region at 07/1740Z. A large and fast CME was visible on the MK4 coronagraph at Mauna Loa. Intense centimetric radio bursts accompanied this flare, including a 27,000 sfu Tenflare. Type II (1860 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were also observed. This region also produced a very long duration M1 flare, which peaked at 06/2202Z. A fast and bright CME (1400 km/s) on LASCO imagery was observed with this event. The sunspot cluster associated with Region 808 is just now rotating into view, so an accurate assessment of its true size and complexity will have to wait. Region 808 is the return of old Region 798, which produced significant solar and geophysical activity during its last passage on the visible disk.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808 is obviously a complex and moderate-large size sunspot group with great flare potential. Expect further major flares.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 06-2100Z tot 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Today's powerful X17 flare produced a sudden disturbance in the geomagnetic field at 07/1725Z. This 82 nT magnetic crochet was one of the largest observed this Solar Cycle. A slow rise in the greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit began near issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. The CME activity associated with yesterday's long-duration M1 and today's X17 flares were not Earth directed. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit are slowly rising now and are expected to continue to do so. These protons will likely cross the 10 pfu threshold on 08 Sep.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 08 Sep tot 10 Sep
Klasse M70%75%75%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton60%50%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       07 Sep 100
  Voorspelt   08 Sep-10 Sep  110/120/120
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/009
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/010
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/012-010/015-005/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 08 Sep tot 10 Sep
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%20%15%
Kleine stormcondities05%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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