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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Sep 08 2204 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 251 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 08 Sep 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z

Solar activity remains at high levels. An X5/2b flare was in progress from Region 808 (S09E67) at the time of this writing. Moderate centimetric radio bursts are also in progress, including a 990 sfu Tenflare. Very active Region 808 is rotating into view as a large and complex sunspot cluster. Limb proximity is still hindering the analysis, but this compact spot group will likely exceed 1000 millionths of white light area. Numerous C-class flares and two M2 flares preceded the X5 event. New Region 809 (N10E60) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to remain at high levels. Region 808 is a large and complex sunspot group capable of producing M and X-class flares.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A sudden disturbance of 41 nT (magnetic crochet) was observed in the geomagnetic field following today's X5 flare. A greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV proton event occurred following yesterday's X17 flare on the southeast limb. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 08/0215Z and remains in progress. The peak flux so far was 87 pfu at 08/1950Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 08/0405Z and also remains in progress. The peak flux was 7 pfu at 08/1925Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event from a source on the east limb is extremely rare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CME associated with yesterday's X17 flare was very large and very fast. Although the magnetic cloud associated with this CME is not expected to impact Earth, a shock passage is expected, which will likely produce active to minor storm periods on 09 Sep. Isolated active periods are expected on 10 and 11 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through 10 Sep. A further enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons will likely follow the anticipated shock passage on 09 Sep. Today's X5 flare may enhance the existing proton event. The greater than 100 MeV proton event will persist through 09 Sep.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 09 Sep tot 11 Sep
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X50%50%50%
Proton99%90%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       08 Sep 094
  Voorspelt   09 Sep-11 Sep  100/110/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 07 Sep  018/015
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/012
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  020/025-015/020-008/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 09 Sep tot 11 Sep
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities30%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%10%05%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:19/02/2020Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2020:73
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:2

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