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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 Apr 24 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 115 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 Apr 2012

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours with multiple C-class x-ray events. A C3 flare was observed at 24/0745Z off the east limb from new Region 1467 (N14E72). Associated with this event, were both a type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 1029 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME. Two other new regions were numbered today, Region 1468 (N09E12) which rapidly emerged on the disk and Region 1469 (S21E68), which rotated onto the disk. The remaining active regions were stable and quiet today, except for Region 1465 (S19W12). Region 1465 showed a consolidation of both leader and follower spot groups into one cluster and is now classified as a beta-gamma-delta.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (25 - 27 April).
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the past 24 hours due to continued CME effects and the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Early in the period, measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed extensive southward (negative) periods of the Bz component of the IMF. Even though solar wind speeds remained well below nominal levels, these periods drove the majority of the geomagnetic activity. Around 24/0200Z, CH HSS characteristics were observed by the ACE spacecraft with solar wind density dropping off as the solar wind speed increased. At the time of this report, solar wind speeds had increased from around 350 km/s to around 630 km/s.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 April) as the effects of a CH HSS continue. An increase to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods is expected on day two (26 April) as the CME from 23 April is expected to become geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (27 April) as effects of the CME wane.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 Apr tot 27 Apr
Klasse M20%20%20%
Klasse X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       24 Apr 134
  Voorspelt   25 Apr-27 Apr  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 23 Apr  021/030
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  021/031
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  012/018-017/022-011/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 Apr tot 27 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%40%25%
Kleine stormcondities10%20%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief45%50%40%
Kleine stormcondities25%30%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%15%10%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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