Het archief bekijken van maandag 02 juli 2012

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 184 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 02 Jul 2012

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 01-2100Z tot 02-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515 (S17E04) produced an impulsive M5/2b flare at 02/1052Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 1063 km/s), a 380 sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) with most of the mass directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. It also produced an impulsive M3/2b flare at 02/2007Z associated with a 190 sfu Tenflare. This region remained large and magnetically complex (beta-gamma-delta). Region 1513 (N16W09) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 02/0035Z as well as frequent B- and C-class flares. Gradual spot growth was noted in its intermediate and trailer portions and it retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the period (03 - 05 July) with M-class flares expected from Regions 1513 and 1515.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 01-2100Z tot 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels with minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes. This activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). ACE data indicated solar wind speeds in the 580 - 722 km/s range with no discernible trend. IMF Bz was variable and ranged from +6 nT to -5 nT. Todays observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux (166 sfu) was flare-enhanced due to the M3/2b at 02/2007Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 July) as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (04 - 05 July) as CH HSS effects gradually subside. The CME associated with todays M5/2b flare is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 03 Jul tot 05 Jul
Klasse M70%70%70%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       02 Jul 166
  Voorspelt   03 Jul-05 Jul  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 120
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 01 Jul  020/023
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  020/022
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  013/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 03 Jul tot 05 Jul
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%15%15%
Kleine stormcondities10%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief15%15%15%
Kleine stormcondities30%25%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities35%25%25%

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