Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2018 Feb 21 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (21-23 Feb).

Energetische deeltjes

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels, with a maximum flux of 9,120 pfu at 20/0130 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Voorspelling
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on day one (21 Feb) and decrease to moderate to high levels on day two (22 Feb) in response to likely effects from a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. A return to high flux is expected on day three (23 Feb) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Zonnewind

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influences of a negative polarity CH HSS and a return towards a slow solar wind regime. Total IMF strength was primarily steady from 3 to 4 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from early period values of 525 km/s to end of period speed near 400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun).
Voorspelling
The solar wind environment is expected to be primarily benign most of day one (21 Feb), but may become mildly disturbed later in the day due to approaching CIR influences ahead of an extension of the negative polarity south polar CH HSS. Day two (22 Feb) is likely to experience an enhanced IMF due to lingering CIR influences followed by increasing solar wind speed due to CH HSS onset. WSA-Enlil ambient model runs are currently too early with speed increase, but indicate connection with the north flank of the CH HSS and forecast solar wind speed of 600 km/s. Recurrence suggests a weaker connection as speed last rotation was 500 km/s. Elevated solar wind speed is anticipated to continue into day three (23 Feb) as CH HSS influences continue, but begin to wane.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field was unsettled the first synoptic period of the UTC-day, but became quiet afterwards.
Voorspelling
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (21 Feb) in response to the mildly disturbed solar wind environment. Day two (22 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period likely in response to CIR and CH HSS influences. Day three (23 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled as CH HSS effects continue but weaken.
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Ruimteweer vandaag

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Hoge breedtegraad 30% 30%
Gemiddelde breedtegraad 10% 1%
Voorspelde Kp max 3
Zonneactiviteit
M-klasse zonnevlam 1%
X-klasse zonnevlam 1%
Maanfase
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Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:19/02/2018Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2018:21
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:4

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12002M4.4
22002M3.9
32000M1.8
42002M1.4
51999M1.3
ApG
1199495G4
2200021G1
3200619
4200314
5201410
*sinds 1994

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