Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2017 Sep 20 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was very low. Region 2680 (N08W53, Hsx/alpha) underwent slow dissipation and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (20-22 Sep), with a slight chance for C-class flares by day three as former Region 2673 (S09, L=119) nears its return to the east limb.

Energetische deeltjes

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 34,879 pfu at 19/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Voorspelling
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels all three days (20-22 Sep), with a chance for very high levels on days one and two (20-21 Sep), due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels all three days.

Zonnewind

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters remained indicative of continued, but weakened CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3 to 4 nT and the Bz component was variable, with a prolonged period of southward direction after 19/1600 UTC. Solar wind speed underwent a slow and unsteady decline from about 550 km/s early in the period to speeds of 500-525 km/s by the periods end. The phi angle was in a positive sector (away from Sun).
Voorspelling
Solar wind speed is anticipated to continue slowly declining towards an ambient background regime on days one through three (20-22 Sep) as the extension of the positive polarity, north polar CH HSS rotates away from positional geoeffectiveness.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in reaction to weakened CH HSS influences.
Voorspelling
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period still likely on day one (20 Sep) as solar wind speeds continue to decrease, but remain elevated. Day two (21 Sep) is expected to be quiet to unsettled in weaker reaction to waning CH HSS effects. A return to quiet conditions is expected on day three (22 Sep) as the CH HSS rotates away from geoeffective position.
Op basis van de huidige parameters is er nu geen kans op poollicht in België en Nederland
De snelheid van de zonnewind is gematigd hoog (508,5 km/sec.)

Laatste nieuws

Ruimteweer vandaag

Poollicht activiteit Zwak Sterk
Hoge breedtegraad 30% 40%
Gemiddelde breedtegraad 10% 1%
Voorspelde Kp max 4
Zonneactiviteit
M-klasse zonnevlam 1%
X-klasse zonnevlam 1%
Maanfase
Nieuwe maan

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100%

Meer alerts

Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:09/09/2017M1.1
Laatste geomagnetische storm:18/09/2017Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2017:56
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:2

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12015M2.1
22002M1.8
31998M1.8
42015M1.5
52002M1.5
ApG
1201544G3
2199634G2
3200327G1
4201618
5200412G1
*sinds 1994