Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2018 Apr 20 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was very low. Slight growth was observed in Region 2706 (N04E62, Cao/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare, throughout the forecast period (20-22 Apr).

Energetische deeltjes

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,200 pfu at 19/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
Voorspelling
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the rest of day one (20 Apr) due to redistribution. A return to moderate to high levels is expected on days two and three (21-22 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Zonnewind

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters began the period at background levels with solar wind speed around 280 km/s and total field near 4 nT. At 19/2320 UTC, a weak interplanetary shock was observed at the DSCOVR satellite. Solar wind speed increased from 295 km/s to 333 km/s while total field increased from 2 nT to 6 nT. Total field further increased to a maximum of 23 nT at 20/0516 UTC with the Bz component mostly southward reaching a maximum of -20 nT at 20/0813 UTC. Density reached a peak of 65 p/cm^3 at 20/0607 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from a positive sector to a negative sector at approximately 20/0710 UTC along with an increase in solar wind speed to near 512 km/s by 20/0916 UTC.
Voorspelling
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through midday on day three (20-22 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field was quiet on 19 April. By 20 April, activity increased to active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels with the arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) storm levels were observed during the 20/0600-0900 and 0900-1200 UTC periods.
Voorspelling
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels through the rest of day one (20 Apr) due to continued CIR/CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (21 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected by day three (22 Apr).
Op basis van de huidige parameters is er nu geen kans op poollicht in België en Nederland

G1 - Kleine geomagnetische storm

Geobserveerde Kp: 5
Waarde bereikt: 19:39 UTC
De snelheid van de zonnewind is gematigd hoog (588,4 km/sec.)

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Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:11/04/2018Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2018:65
Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag:18/04/2018

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12001M4.1
21998M1.4
32001M1.0
42000C8.6
52001C8.0
ApG
1200270G3
2201728G2
3199924
4201422G1
5200520G1
*sinds 1994

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