3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 is 3 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Apr 28       Apr 29       Apr 30
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         2.33     
03-06UT       3.33         2.00         2.67     
06-09UT       3.33         2.33         2.00     
09-12UT       3.67         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       3.00         2.33         1.67     
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         1.67     
18-21UT       2.00         2.33         2.67     
21-00UT       2.00         2.67         1.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024

              Apr 28  Apr 29  Apr 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 27 2024 1235 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024

              Apr 28        Apr 29        Apr 30
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected over the next three days.