Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2024 Apr 26 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3638 (S17, L=233) produced two R1 (Minor) events from the SW limb, the largest of which was an M1.3 flare at 25/1712 UTC. Minor development was observed in Region 3658 (S23W52, Dro/beta) and the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Voorspelling

Moderate levels of solar activity are expected on 26-27 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate on 28 Apr, with M-class flare activity likely.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,400 pfu observed at 25/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Voorspelling

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels on 26-27 Apr due to the flare potential and location of multiple active regions. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on 28 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 26-28 Apr.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind conditions became weakly enhanced at around 26/0018 UTC. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 10 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -9 nT, after 26/0215 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from a low of around 280 km/s to a peak of around 385 km/s after 26/0018 UTC. The phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.

Voorspelling

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 26-28 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.

Voorspelling

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 26-28 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 26-27 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.