Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2026 Feb 16 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/0435 UTC from a source beyond the east limb. All five active regions on the disk were stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 18 Feb.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 16 Feb, before increasing to high levels on 17-18 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 Feb.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were consistent with positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 9 nT. The Bz component ranged between +8/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from a peak of around 750 km/s early in the period to around 550-600 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Прогноз

The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 18 Feb due to continued, but weakening CH HSS influences.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Прогноз

Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 16 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 17 Feb, with quiet to unsettled levels likely on 18 Feb, as CH HSS influences wane.