Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2026 May 11 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M5.7/2b flare at 10/1339 UTC, accompanied by Type-II (est. 650-1,736 km/s) and Tenflare (550 sfu) radio emissions, from Region 4436 (N19E49, Dao/beta-gamma). The associated partial halo CME, first visible at 10/1348 UTC off the east in LASCO C2 imagery, was modeled and determined to largely be well east of the Sun-Earth line. However, when considering the expanse of this event as evidenced by the EIT wave present in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, a glancing blow or shock arrival from this event cannot be completely ruled out for late 12 May through the early portions of the 13 May UTC-day. Region 4432 (N14W63, Eki/beta-gamma) maintained a mixed polarity configuration while gaining new spots in its intermediate area. The remaining three numbered regions were relatively stable and quiet.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 11-13 May, with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 13 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 11 May. Probabilities for an S1 (Minor) event remain at a slight chance, but increase somewhat, for 12-13 May with any shock arrival enhancement from the 10 May event to the geostationary environment.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

The solar wind environment reflected waning positive polarity CH HSS influences followed by the return of ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength reached 6 nT, while the Bz component remained near neutral. Solar wind speeds underwent a decline from near 440 km/s to near 380 km/s by the end of the period.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are likely to continue the current trend of waning positive polarity CH HSS influences for the remainder of 11 May and for the majority of 12 May. An enhancement from the 10 May CME event is possible by late on 12 May into early 13 May. Otherwise, ambient-like conditions are anticipated to give way to another positive polarity CH HSS regime by late on 13 May.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through a majority of 12 May. Active conditions are possible, with a high chance of G1 (Minor) periods, by late 12 May into early 13 May with any glancing blow or shock arrival of the 10 May CME event. Unsettled to active levels are then expected to continue through 13 May as positive polarity CH HSS effects begin by mid to late day.