Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2025 Dec 18 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares, mostly from new Region 4312 (N17E62, Hax/alpha). Region 4307 (S15W81, Dao/beta) showed slight growth and consolidation as it neared the SW limb. Slight decay and separation was observed in Region 4311 (N03W05, Cso/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. Beginning at approximately 17/1230 UTC, an approximate 13 degree filament eruption, centered near N37E12, was observed in SUVI 304 imagery. CME analysis is ongoing for this event. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 18-20 Dec.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,630 pfu observed at 17/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 18 Dec with a chance for high levels on 19 Dec due to HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 17-19 Dec.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was mostly in the 550-650 km/s range. Total field ranged from 1-9 nT while the Bz component was between +/-7 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through 18 Dec under negative polarity CH HSS influence. HSS influences are expected to gradually diminish over 19-20 Dec.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels due to persistent CH HSS activity.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels through 18 Dec as HSS activity persists. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 19-20 Dec as HSS activity gradually wanes.