Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 22 september 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 266 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 22 SEP 2000
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN
REGION 9169 (N10E13), WHICH PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE LARGEST BEING A C5/SF IN PROGRESS AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, 22/2100 UTC. THIS REGION REMAINS THE LARGEST AND
MOST IMPRESSIVE ON THE DISK, EXHIBITING AN INCREASED NUMBER OF SPOTS
WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED AREAL EXTENT SINCE YESTERDAY, AND RETAINING
A BETA-DELTA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9166 (S12W30)
ALSO PRODUCED SOME C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 9169
REMAINS A LIKELY SOURCE OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
MODERATE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME
FROM REGION 9169, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST TWO DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS BY DAY THREE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 23 SEP tot 25 SEP
Klasse M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Klasse X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 22 SEP 232
Voorspeld 23 SEP-25 SEP 235/235/230
90 dagen gemiddelde 22 SEP 179
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP 007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP 007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 23 SEP tot 25 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 20% | 20% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 25% | 25% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
VI. COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
Alle tijden in UTC
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