Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2024 May 18 1230 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity reached high levels following an M7.2/2b flare from Region 3685 (S13E49, Esi/beta-gamma). Associated with the flare was Type II (425 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 17/2124 UTC off the E limb. Initial analysis indicated a potential glancing blow late on 20 May. Slight growth was observed in Region 3685 and Region 3683 (S23W39, Dri/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or slightly decaying.

Ennustus

Solar activity is expected to be low with a good chance for further M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) on 18-20 May.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated, but well below S1 (Minor) levels. The 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Ennustus

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons reaching S1 (Minor) levels on 18-20 May due to the flare potential of Region 3685. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 20 May.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters reflected the likely arrival of the 14 May CME. The arrival at 17/1245 UTC resulted in stronger enhancements than anticipated, with total field reaching a peak of 17 nT, Bz seeing a maximum southward deflection of -15 nT, and solar wind speeds mostly in the 450-500 km/s range. After 18/0000 UTC, solar wind speed began to decrease to the 400-450 km/s range and total field decreased to under 10 nT after 18/0600 UTC. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Ennustus

Solar wind parameters should continue to decrease through the rest of 18 May. Further enhancements are likely on 19-20 May, due to glancing influences of additional CMEs.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels late on 17 May following the arrival of the anticipated 14 May CME. Quiet to active levels were observed through early on 18 May.

Ennustus

The latter half of 18 May should see a return to quiet to unsettled levels as CME effects diminish. By 19-20 May, conditions are expected to increase back to unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, due to glancing CME effects from the 15 and 17 May CMEs.