Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2025 Dec 24 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity was low. Weak C-class activity was observed from Regions 4316 (S08W03, Cso/beta) and 4317 (N10E35, Eki/beta-gamma). Moderate growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 4317 along with some consolidation of the leader spots. Slight growth was also observed in Regions 4318 (N05E41, Dao/beta). New Region 4320 (N06E68, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Ennustus

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with an increasing chance for M-class flares over 24-26 Dec due to the return of old Regions 4294 (S15, L=284) and 4296 (S15, L=272). During these regions last rotation, they produced 17 M-class flares and 2 M-class flares, respectively.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,560 pfu observed at 23/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Ennustus

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-26 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 26 Dec.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Sola wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed averaged approximately 700 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive.

Ennustus

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 24-25 Dec as influence from the positive polarity coronal hole persists. Additional enhancements are possible on 24 Dec due to a CME that is expected to pass close to Earth which left the Sun on 20 Dec. Waning conditions are expected on 26 Dec.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field reached unsettled to active levels due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Ennustus

The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active conditions on 24-25 Dec under continued CH HSS effects, and possible influences on 24 Dec from a CME (which left the Sun on 20 Dec) that is expected to pass in close proximity to Earth. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26 Dec under waning CH HSS conditions.