Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2026 Feb 17 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/0435 UTC from a source beyond the east limb. All five active regions on the disk were stable throughout the period. A fast CME associated with the M2.5 flare was first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at 16/0424 UTC. Analysis suggests that while the eruption was quite wide, there is no Earth-directed component. Starting around 16/1230 UTC, a filament just south of center-disk erupted, with the associated CME first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at 16/1348 UTC, with a substantial northward deflection due to the coronal hole located south of the eruption. Analysis suggests a potential minor glancing blow on 19 Feb.

Ennustus

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 19 Feb.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of 1,520 pfu at 16/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Ennustus

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 19 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 19 Feb.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters were consistent with positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached a peak of 9 nT. The Bz (north-south) component ranged between +6/-7 nT, with a couple intervals of sustained ~-5 nT. Solar wind speeds began the period with an average 600 km/s, until 16/0900 UTC when they began increasing, reaching a max of ~700 km/s around 16/1715 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun).

Ennustus

The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 19 Feb due to continued but weakening CH HSS influences.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storming levels in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Ennustus

Isolated periods of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming are possible on 17 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 18 Feb, with quiet to unsettled levels likely on 19 Feb, as CH HSS influences wane.