Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2026 Apr 04 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4409 (N02W01, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the majority of X-ray activity over the past 24 hours, which included two impulsive M1.3 flares (R1-Minor) at 03/0756 UTC and 03/1250 UTC, respectively. The region exhibited penumbral growth while consolidating spots near its leader. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Ennustus

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares, over 04-06 Apr driven primarily by the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405, and 4409.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,465 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated throughout the period, reaching a level of 6 pfu at 03/0405, but remained below S1 (Minor) levels.

Ennustus

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-06 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 04-06 Apr.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a negative polarity CH HSS until 03/1503 UTC, when a IP shock was observed from the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr. The shock increased the total magnetic fields strength from 5 nT to a peak of 14 nT. Bz was mostly oriented southward, with a peak negative value of -11 nT observed at 03/1518 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from ~625 km/s to ~800 km/s, and then entered a gradual decline with values near 700 km/s by the end of the UT day.

Ennustus

The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 06 Apr due to waning CME effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels following the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr.

Ennustus

The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels over 04 Apr due to combined effects of a CME that left the Sun on 01 and influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 05 Apr and active conditions on 06 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS influences wane and any remnant CME enhancements subside.