Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2026 May 29 1230 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.1/sf at 29/0704 UTC from Region 4455 (N15E52, Eho/beta-gamma), which was the main flare factory this last 24 hours, with the occasional flare from Region 4452 (N10W48, Dai/beta-gamma). There are ten numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4452 continued to see new flux emergence and is beginning to exhibit magnetic shearing in its western most area. Region 4452 is also notable as it is an anti-Hale region with reversed magnetic polarity for its hemisphere in Solar Cycle 25. Region 4449 (S10W02, Csi/beta) showed minor new flux emergence with opposite polarity transitory spots appearing, making it no longer a unipolar group while its main leading spot declined in extent. Region 4445 (N07, L=163) has largely decayed to plage but small magnetic pores frequently appear in its vicinity. The remaining regions on the visible disk remained stable or displayed minor decay and simplification. Starting at around 29/0100 UTC, a filament far north of center-disk began to gradually erupt, but GOES/SUVI 304 suggest the bulk of the material fell back to the Sun and was reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Prévisions

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 31 May. There remains a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), driven primarily by Regions 4452 and 4455.

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 561 pfu observed at 28/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Prévisions

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 31 May, as anticipated enhancements are not anticipated to be sufficient to raise flux levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The solar wind environment was indicative of very mild negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) strength ranged primarily from 6 to 10 nT, and the north-south (Bz) component continued to be highly variable between northern and southern orientations, with a peak southward deflection to -8 nT. The phi angle was largely in a negative (towards the Sun) sector. Solar wind speed ranged mainly between 400-450 km/s.

Prévisions

Mild enhancements due to weak -CH HSS influences are likely to persist through 29 May. Further enhancements are possible on 30 May due to a CME that departed the Sun on 26 May. Additional solar wind enhancements are anticipated on 31 May due to the onset of a new -CH HSS, combined with possible glancing influences from the slow eruptions that departed the Sun on 27 and 28 May.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in varying response to -CH HSS influences.

Prévisions

Geomagnetic field conditions are anticipated to be at quiet to unsettled levels 29–30 May, with a chance for isolated active periods due to waning -CH HSS effects and potential glancing CME influences. Active conditions are likely on 31 May in response to the combined onset of the new -CH HSS and glancing CME influences.