Kosmoso orų prognozė – diskusija

Išleista: 2026 Jun 16 0030 UTC
Parenta JAV komercijos departamento, NOAA, Kosminių orų prognozių centro ir apdorota SpaceWeatherLive.com

Saulės aktyvumas

24 h Santrauka

Solar activity was at low levels. The majority of the low level C-class flares were observed at or beyond the NE limb near N08. The largest flare was a C1.8 at 15/1315 UTC from Region 4465 (N08W24, Dai/beta-gamma). Slight growth was observed in this region, particularly in the SE trailing spots along with umbral separation within its larger spots. Region 4464 (S14W70, Hsx/alpha) was in decay as it approached the SW limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Prognozė

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over 16-18 Jun, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.

Įelektrintos dalelės

24 h Santrauka

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with peak value of 1,488 pfu observed at 15/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Prognozė

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 16-17 Jun and decrease to moderate levels on 18 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 Jun.

Saulės vėjas

24 h Santrauka

Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from approximately 395 to 480 km/s. Total field was at or below 5 nT, with the Bz component between +/- 4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Prognozė

The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced on 16-18 Jun due to a possible glancing-blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 12 Jun, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 h Santrauka

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Prognozė

Unsettled to active levels are expected on 16-17 Jun due to a possible glancing blow from the 12 Jun CME followed by CH HSS onset. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18 Jun.