Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2025 Dec 17 1230 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were observed. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4310 (N01W45, Cro/beta) and new Region 4311 (N03E09, Cso/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 17-19 Dec.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,020 pfu observed at 16/0340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 18 Dec with a chance for high levels on 19 Dec due to HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 17-19 Dec.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind parameters were indicative of influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 500 km/s to between 550-700 km/s. Total field decreased from 14 nT to near 6 nT while the Bz component was between +12/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through 18 Dec under negative polarity CH HSS influence. HSS influences are expected to slowly diminish over 19 Dec.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 17-18 Dec as HSS activity persists. Quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 19 Dec as HSS activity gradually wanes.