Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2026 Jun 11 0030 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity remained at low levels with most of the C-level activity originating from Region 4465 (N09E40, Dsi/beta-gamma), including the largest flare of the day: a C2.6 observed at 10/0059 UTC. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, with Region 4467 (S08W09, L=344) decaying to plage. There was a Type-II radio sweep detected by the RSTN stations at 10/1715 UTC (est. velocity = 1,127 km/s). That radio emission was associated with a CME first observed at the NE quadrant by ground-based coronagraph imagery from HAO/MLSO coronagraph at 10/1731 UTC, and later by space-based coronagraph LASCO/C2 at 10/1800 UTC. Modeling indicates there is no Earth-directed component. Other CME activity was observed later in the coronagraph imagery during the period, but preliminary analysis indicated no Earth-directed component.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained below the 1,000 pfu threshold, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels during the period.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are likely remain at low to moderate levels on 11-12 Jun, returning to high levels on the 13 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

NOAAs SOLAR-1 satellite became operational today, becoming SWPCs primary source of solar wind data at 10/1800 UTC. Solar wind speeds continued to decrease after the passage of a weak transient, reaching 374 km/s at the end of the period. The total IMF oscillated around 5 nT while Bz oscillated between -5 to 5 nT. The Phi angle returned to the positive sector after about 10/0800 UTC, with brief sporadic returns to the negative sector until the end of the period.

Прогноз

Background solar wind conditions are expected through midday 11 June when a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective through 13 June.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 June, becoming unsettled to active on 12-13 June upon the anticipated impact of the -CH HSS.