Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2026 Apr 01 1230 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Low level C-class flares were produced by Regions 4405 (S27E12, Esi/beta-gamma) and 4409 (N02E31, Dro/beta). The largest flare was a C1.2 at 01/0651 UTC from Region 4409. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4409 and 4404 (N15W00, Csi/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included two filament eruptions. The first was an approximate 5 degree filament eruption, centered near N20W12, occurring at 01/0202 UTC. The ejecta appeared narrow and directed NNW in SUVI 304 imagery. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 01/0312 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Initial analysis suggested no Earth-directed component. Another larger filament eruption was observed lifting off around 01/0310 UTC in the SW quadrant. The filament appeared to be around 50 degrees centered near S32W55. Analysis of the CME will be conducted as imagery becomes available.

Прогноз

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flaring, with slight chance for X-class flares through 03 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4405.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,380 pfu at 31/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels during the period.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be reach high levels on 01-02 Apr and return to moderate to normal levels on 03 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 03 Apr.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels until a IP shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 01/1130 UTC indicating a much later than expected arrival of the 30 Mar CME. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. Total field increase to 14 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Прогноз

Likely weaker CME influence is expected to continue through the rest of the UTC day on 01 Apr. Further enhancements in solar wind conditions are anticipated around midday on 02 Apr as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. HSS activity is expected to persist into 03 Apr.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active periods for the rest of the UTC day on 01 Apr with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming possible as CME effects persist. Active to G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 02 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist through 03 Apr.